Military analysts have indicated that Iran might declare itself a nuclear power by the end of this year, especially given the current political uncertainty in the United States, which is in the midst of a tightly contested presidential race.
James Carafano, vice president of foreign and defense policy studies at The Heritage Foundation, stated that such a move by Iran is a real possibility. He suggested that if Iran were to make such a declaration, they might do it now, as the Biden administration is unlikely to respond aggressively, and if former President Trump were to win, it would still be months before he could take office and react.
The Biden administration has warned over the past year that Iran is close to achieving nuclear weapon capability. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken mentioned in July that Iran might be just a couple of weeks away from producing enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon. However, the administration has yet to find concrete evidence that Iran possesses such a weapon.
Carafano emphasized that the current U.S. political situation presents an opportunity for Iran. He explained that Iran could declare itself a nuclear state, which might cause significant concern globally, even if they haven’t yet developed a fully deployable nuclear weapon. This declaration alone could provide Iran with a perceived protective barrier, similar to a “forcefield.”
Retired Lt. Gen. Charles Moore of the U.S. Air Force also agreed that Iran declaring itself a nuclear power is a distinct possibility. However, he highlighted the difference between simply declaring nuclear capabilities and being able to deploy them effectively.
Carafano further argued that nuclear weapons primarily serve as a deterrent against other nuclear powers. He cited historical examples, such as the September 11 attacks and the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine, to demonstrate that having nuclear weapons does not guarantee protection from all forms of conflict.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, noted that Iran has made significant nuclear progress during Biden’s presidency. He suggested that Iran might aim to secure these advancements, particularly if there is a possibility of Trump returning to office.
Ultimately, the decision for Iran to weaponize its nuclear capability is political, involving a series of technical steps. Western policies could influence this decision, either positively or negatively.